Studies of Population Quantity Dynamics of an Endangered Plant Based on Cellular Automata
CHANG Jie1, XU Jie2, GE Ying1 , GU Bao-jing1 , JIN Xiao-gang2, GUO Yan-ting1, MIN Yong2 (1.Zhejiang University, College of Life Sciences, Hangzhou 310058, China 2.Zhejiang University, College of Computer Science, Hangzhou 310027, China)
Cellular automaton was a new technology developed in the 50’s of 20 century. Now it becomesan important technique in modern scientific field, because the cellular automaton could simulate various physical, chemical and biological phenomenons commendably. This article gives a brief review of its application in the field of the population ecology, and using this technique to simulate the growth dynamics of population of the endangered species Changium smyrnioides Hoff. and compare it with another similar species Anthriscus sylvestris. According to the results of the simulations, the critical point, which may accurately describe the population dynamics, can be made out. During our simulations, we choose the Reproductive Rate (m) and the Proportion of Inhabitable Sites as two main variables. The conclusions indicate that the quantity of these two species will increase while their reproductive rates (m) or the proportion of inhabitable sites (h) increase, and from the results, we can make decision that the reproduction rate is the main cause of C. smyrnioides being in danger. C. smyrnioides can keep surviving only when m 0.6732 plant/year. Comparatively, with the reproduction rate from 6.15 to 10.75 plant/year, A. sylvestris won’t decline, but when m 9.15 plant/year, the density of population can’t be increase any more, so it suggests that there is excess reproduction in population of A. sylvestris. The proportion of cell that C. smyrnioides takes up can not rise up with h beyond a certain value-0.7%, so its maximum percentage of cell occupation only can achieve 0.4%, while A. sylvestris may reach at 81.9% of all the inhabitable cells. The requirement of minimum patch occupancy of C. smyrnioides is smaller than that of A. sylvestris. The following conclusions are: C. smyrnioides tends to be the K strategy; while A. sylvestris is tending to be the r strategy. With these simulations, the corresponding measures of the protection on this endangered species can be identified. More profound research in future is still based on its elementary simulation on the ecology by cellular automaton.
【CateGory Index】： S567.53