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《Journal of Jimei University(Natural Science)》 2010-03
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On the Semaphore Early Warning System for Shipping Market

WANG Yue-lin,ZHEN Hong,ZHOU De-quan(Transport School,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 200135,China)  
In order for the shipping market to better allot its resources and cut its risks,a semaphore early warning system for shipping market was proposed.The paper adopted!several series of indicators to reflect the conditions of the shipping market,and,based on the benchmark BDI,divided those conditions into five defined market segments.According to the related statistical data and by some statistical analysis methods such as time difference relevance and Kullback Leiber information distance,the researcher selected and divided the benchmarks into three defined series:leading indicators,coincident indicators and lagging indicators.Using the X-12ARIMA and distribution test,quantitative research and analysis were conducted on the directors and then a semaphore early warning system of shipping market was built.
【CateGory Index】: F550;F224
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